Virginia was Dems’ Firewall. It Just Crumbled.
Is this a harbinger of things to come? Let’s hope so.
I hate being the guy that celebrates too soon. People have somehow never developed the ability to figure out that you don’t celebrate until you *actually* win to avoid looking like an idiot. I’m aware that one of the options, when you celebrate too soon, is to carry on, pretend you never lost in the first place and create a blissful utopia where the only people you listen to are people that will tell you that you won. But still. No prominent politician in the last five years would ever do anything that immature.
That said, the Republican win in Virginia is a win worth celebrating, and Glenn Youngkin’s path to victory is an example of a successful strategy for the right moving forward. Youngkin handled Trump properly — by not handling him and giving the former president the kid gloves treatment. In a 22-minute speech the day before the election, Youngkin didn’t mention Trump once, instead taking the time to outline his strategy, a message that ought to ring in the ears of Republican strategists across the country: “We’re going to have a whole new crop of Republicans come in and define a new way forward.”
While a new strategy is an admirable move, Youngkin also got Trump’s endorsement, meaning that the Trump base was going to fall in line regardless of what Youngkin did with the endorsement. But he wasn’t flaunting it. The right can succeed without Trump as an active presence, as long as he remains a passive one. To put it more cynically, the Dispatch reported on Wednesday, “Youngkin proved Republicans can win without embracing Trump, but only if Trump agrees.”
In fairness to Youngkin, the Virginia win wasn’t just due to the right. Like Trump, Youngkin came out on top after massive blunders from both Terry McAuliffe and more general anti-Republican opposition. Virginia was supposed to be a Democrat firewall. Youngkin’s opposition managed to screw it up, both by painting him as a Trump clone (he was not) and, in some cases, sending literal fake white supremacists with tiki torches to Charlottesville because who doesn’t love a good throwback. In fairness, McAuliffe’s campaign distanced itself from the tiki torch stunt, but the damage was done.
Add to that McAuliffe’s pre-election gaffe about education (“I don’t think parents should be telling schools what they should teach”? Really?) and you have the perfect storm. Mischaracterization, opposition incompetency, and absolutely insanely distasteful public stunts, Youngkin was not facing a particularly unified or measured opposition. It’s a big win, but that’s not the best of the Democratic Party.
The value of a unified movement and a fractured opposition isn’t the big takeaway from Republican upset in Virginia. The big lesson is this: when personalities retreat into the background, the right can win in issue-centric elections. A purple state like Virginia was not a place for the left to get lazy. They did, and they’re paying the price for it. It wasn’t about Trump, and McAuliffe isn’t exactly the picture of charisma. In the absence of huge personalities (and huge blunders), issues like education and the economy dominated, if early exit polls are any indication.
It wasn’t about Trump, and it wasn’t about the Evil Commie Democrats Who Literally Eat Children Whilst Worshipping Satan. It was an issue election in the end. Is this a harbinger of things to come? If it means a more moderate Republican party and elections dominated by issues as opposed to personalities, let’s hope so.